NCHRP 08-110, Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research
CTG is a key member of a research team led by the University of Kentucky conducting research on traffic forecasting accuracy and assessment methods. CTG’s Director of Travel Modeling & Analytics David Schmitt is co-Principal Investigator for this study. The objective of this study is to develop a process to analyze and improve the accuracy, reliability, and utility of project-level traffic forecasts.
CTG led the development of a database that will incorporate project traffic forecasting and count information for over 3,000 projects from seven states. The information in the database is being used to analyze patterns and trends in forecasting accuracy. Currently, CTG is conducting “deep dive” analyses of four projects to assess the utility, reliability and accuracy of traffic forecasts. These analyses will research the quantify the forecasting error, identify sources of the forecasting error, and attempt to individually quantify the impact of the sources on the aggregate forecasting error.
Categories: Traffic Forecasts
People: K. Kim, Rapolu, Schmitt