South Florida Park-and-Ride Demand Model Development
CTG is currently developing a Commuter PNR demand estimation model for the South Florida region. The model takes advantage of the targeted on-board surveys conducted on the intercounty express bus trips. The model calculates PNR space needs at the existing and planned lots, providing a consistent analysis for future corridors. The output supports longer-term PNR planning and programming needs as more the Managed Lanes network grows in the region. The model can be applied to identify total potential commuter market to any user defined activity center, to better understand the competition between nearby PNR lots, and to estimate demand at future PNR lots as the PNR market grows. It can also be applied to support the development of short-term express bus service plans and longer-term master plans. Four key efforts are underway:
- Express Bus Market Analysis – CTG is reviewing, expanding and analyzing the on-board survey data collected on I-95/595 express buses. Through this analysis, CTG will identify the travel markets and trip making characteristics of the I-95/595 express bus riders by PNR lot, access & egress distances, trip purpose, market segmentation and destination.
- Merge Model Inputs – Since the PNR demand model covers modeling region across counties currently covered by two different models (SERPM and TCRPM), CTG prepared network, skims and trip inputs that reflect both modeling region on the fly.
- PNR Market Size Estimator – CTG developed a stand-alone application “PNR Market Size Estimator” that downloads the LEHD data, forecasts it for a specified future year and generate a market size report for users who do not have or are not proficient in Cube Voyager but want to do a high level market analysis of commute trips.
- PNR Lot Demand and Size Model – CTG is developing a ridership estimation and PNR lot size estimation model, using the inputs from the previous three steps mentioned above. This model is based on commute trips (dominant express bus market) using LEHD data and following simplified transit modeling steps in Cube Voyager, focusing on commuter trips and PNR lots. The model focuses on competition of mode choice between auto and transit by driving to the PNR lots. CTG will use the data gathered and processed to calibrate and validate the transit components of the developed model. It includes calibration of bus transit running times -based on AVL data-, adjusting dwell times and comparing with the observed travel times. It also involves incorporating observed ‘transit behavior’ from the on-board surveys into model components such as transit path builder, and mode choice steps.